Handicapping the Belmont

The Belmont Stakes has become a tricky race to handicap lately for several
reasons.

Favorites have triumphed nearly 43 percent in the past 140 races, but during
the last 30 years only six scored – 23 percent. And a dozen winners paid
double-digits — 40 percent.

By now most Triple Crown fans know that horses rallying from far off the
pace don’t usually visit the winner’s circle after 1 ½ miles. The numbers
are more stunning upon closer examination.

During the past decade the winners averaged less than two lengths behind
after a mile. While there was only a single wire-to-wire winner, seven had
the lead after 1 ¼ miles, two were second and another was third.

Amazingly, all 10 were in front in the stretch. Those figures show vast
improvement over the previous decade.

From 1989 through ‘98, only one winner was in front after a mile. After 1 ¼
miles, five had the lead, three were second and two were third. Six led in
the stretch, three were second and two were third.

One bit of advice: Don’t let the tote board influence your horse betting
decisions. Just bet the horses you figure have the best chance.

So let’s get right to Saturday’s 141st Belmont starting with the toss-outs.
Say goodbye to Brave Victory, Luv Gov, Mr. Hot Stuff and Summer Bird – just
four wins in 32 starts and three of those came in maiden races.

The slim-chance horses are:

Flying Private ran a fabulous fourth in the Preakness, but only has a maiden
victory at six furlongs back in August in a dozen outings.

Chocolate Candy won four of nine races on California synthetic surfaces, but
finished fifth in the Kentucky Derby beaten 13 lengths.

The main contenders, any of the four that can win, are:

Miner’s Escape: One of two Nick Zito trainees, 15-1 in the morning line, has
steadily improved this year. The son of Mineshaft posted two straight
victories on dirt, breaking his maiden at Gulfstream Park and capturing the
Federico Tesio by 4 ½ lengths, both at 1 1/8 miles.

He runs close to the pace and his granddad A. P. Indy scored in ‘92 after
missing the first two legs of the Triple Crown. Zito has saddled two
longshot winners in the past five races: Da’ Tara last year and Birdstone in ‘04. The price merits a win wager.

Dunkirk: The buzz horse for the Kentucky Derby had the worst trip of the 19 runners right from the break — stumbling, being bumped and steadied before the first turn. His granddad also is A.P. Indy while ‘90 Derby victor Unbridled is the dam sire.

Todd Pletcher won in ‘07 with Rags to Riches, guided by his new rider John
Velazquez. The early 4-1 second choice has two wins in four outings stalking
the pace. The rested colt has the highest speed figure in the filed of 10
when he ran second in the Florida Derby.

Mine That Bird: Eleven Derby winners that lost the Preakness since ‘23
captured the Belmont. Calvin Borel is back aboard after riding Preakness
winner Rachel Alexander and loves his chances.

However, this son of Birdstone was more than six lengths behind after a mile in the first two legs of the Triple Crown, losing the Preakness by a length. If the early 2-1 favorite is closer to the pace turning for home, he should
win. Can he post his third straight triple-digit speed figure? We shall see. He’s one of my two keys in the exotics.

Charitable Man: The son of ‘99 Belmont winner Lemon Drop Kid has several
things going for him besides breaking from the same post as his dad — 6. He
had the lead in the stretch for three of four wins on dirt, including two
scores at Belmont. His connections have been successful recently: Alan
Garcia rode Rag to Riches two years ago and Kiaran McLaughlin trained ‘06
champ Jazil.

The 4-1 second choice has good tactical speed while his running style fits the winning scenario — stalking before kicking in down the lane. His 3
¾-length score in the Peter Pan was excellent. And that race has produced at least one Belmont champ each decade since ‘44 when Bounding scored.

In case you believe in names, horses beginning with “C” have visited the
winner’s circle the most – 20 times. Make that 21.

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